Answer: 19.2222
Step-by-step explanation:
given data;
no of tornadoes = 2,1,0 because it’s fewer than 3.
period = 14 years
probability of a tornado in a calendar year = 0.12
solution:
probability of exactly 2 tornadoes
= ( 0.12 )^2 * ( 0.88 )^11 * ( 14! / 2! * 11! )
= 0.0144 * 0.2451 * 1092
= 3.8541
probability of exac one tornado
= ( 0.12 )^1 * ( 0.88 )^12 * ( 14! / 1! * 12! )
= 0.12 * 0.2157 * 182
= 12.7109
probability of exactly 0 tornado
= ( 0.12 )^0 * ( 0.88 )^13 * ( 14! / 0! * 13! )
= 1 * 0.1898 * 14
= 2.6572
probability if fewer than 3 tornadoes
= 3.8541 + 12.7109 +2.6572
= 19.2222
