Question

Weather forecasters tell people where a hurricane might strike so that they can evacuate and save their lives. But sometimes people evacuate and the hurricane misses the area, making them angry at the forecasters and civil defense authorities who ordered the evacuation. These errors in the forecast are likely due to _____________?

Answer 1

Answer:

Extrapolation

Explanation:

In statistics, extrapolation refers to making an estimate on the future value or behavior of a certain variable based on the current available data. However, extrapolation is subject to a great degree of uncertainty, as it's impossible to account for all the possible variables in the present, and it's next to impossible to know what new variables will affect our calculations in the future. Weather forecasts in particular is an area where errors in the forecasts are very common. This is because making completely accurate predictions is still not possible, mostly because the weather can be affected by countless variables that can't be all measured or accounted for when making a forecast. However, while wrong forecasts can make people angry, forecasters and civil defense authorities have to err on the side of caution. It is better to deal with some people being angry at an unnecessary evacuation, than having people risking their lives in an area affected by a hurricane.