Question

You observe a portfolio for five years and determine that its average return is 12.5​% and the standard deviation of its returns in 19.5​%. Would a​ 30% loss next year be outside the​ 95% confidence interval for this​ portfolio?

Answer 1

Answer:

Yes, you can be confident that the portfolio will not lose more than 30% of its value next year

Explanation:

In this question , the average return of portfolio is 12.5% and the standard deviation is 19.5%. It is estimated that there will be 30% loss next year. The confidence interval is 95%.

Range = Average return ± 2 x Standard deviation Low aid = 12.5% - (2 x19.5%) =12.5% -39% = -26.5%

High end = 12.5% +(2 x19.5%) =12.5%+39% = 51.5%

Thus, the low end is

26.5%

The range of return at 95% confidence interval is -26.5% to 51.5%