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Answer:
Step-by-step explanation:
Hello!
The objective is to test ESP, for this, a psychic was presented with cards face down and asked to determine if each of the cards was one of four symbols: a star, cross, circle, square.
Be X: number of times the psychic identifies the symbols on the cards correctly is a size n sample.
p the probability that the psychic identified the symbol on the cards correctly
You have to calculate the sample size n to estimate the proportion with a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of d=0.01
The CI for the population proportion is constructed "sample proportion" ± "margin of error" Symbolically:
p' ±
Where is the margin of error. As you can see, the formula contains the sample proportion (it is normally symbolized p-hat, in this explanation I'll continue to symbolize it p'), you have to do the following consideration:
Every time the psychic has to identify a card he can make two choices:
"Success" he identifies the card correctly
"Failure" he does not identify the card correctly
If we assume that each symbol has the same probability of being chosen at random P(star)=P(cross)=P(circle)=P(square)= 1/4= 0.25
Let's say, for example, that the card has the star symbol.
The probability of identifying it correctly will be P(success)= P(star)= 1/4= 0.25
And the probability of not identifying it correctly will be P(failure)= P(cross) + P(circle) + P(square)= 1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4= 3/4= 0.75
So for this experiment, we'll assume the "worst case scenario" and use p'= 1/4 as the estimated probability of the psychic identifying the symbol on the card correctly.
The value of Z will be
Now using the formula you have to clear the sample size:
To estimate p with a margin of error of 0.01 and a 95% confidence level you have to take a sample of 7203 cards.
I hope this helps!
Solution:
Given:
when a = 4, substitute for a in the expression;
Therefore, if (a = 4), then
Hence, the answer is 16.