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Nady [450]
2 years ago
10

A polygraph (lie detector) is an instrument used to determine if an individual is telling the truth. These tests are considered

to be 90% reliable. In other words, if an individual lies, there is a 0.90 probability that the test will detect a lie. Let there also be a 0.045 probability that the test erroneously detects a lie even when the individual is actually telling the truth. Consider the null hypothesis, "the individual is telling the truth," to answer the following questions
a. What is the probability of a Type I error? (Round your answer to 3 decimal places.)
b. What is the probability of a Type II error? (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.
Mathematics
1 answer:
Leya [2.2K]2 years ago
3 0

Answer:

A) P(Type I error) = 0.045

B) P(Type II) error = 0.1

Step-by-step explanation:

We are told that the reliability of the test is 90% reliable.

Also, we are told that the probability that the test erroneously detects a lie even when the individual is actually telling the truth is 0.045.

Thus;

A) To calculate the probability of type I error:

From statistics, in this question we can say that the probability of a type I error is the probability that the test will erroneously detect a lie even though the individual is actually telling the truth. Thus;

Probability of (type I error) = P(rejecting true null) = 0.045

B) For probability of type II error, it is defined as the error where we accept a null hypothesis that is false. We can say that it produces a false negative and the formula is;

P(Type II) error = 1 - reliability

Reliability in the question is 0.90

Thus;

P(Type II) error = 1 - 0.9

P(Type II) error = 0.1

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Seventy-two percent of the light aircraft that disappear while in flight in a certain country are subsequently discovered. Of th
Anton [14]

Answer:

a) 0.105 = 10.5% probability that it will not be discovered if it has an emergency locator.

b) 0.522 = 52.2% probability that it will be discovered if it does not have an emergency locator.

c) 0.064 = 6.4% probability that 7 of them are discovered.

Step-by-step explanation:

For itens a and b, we use conditional probability.

For item c, we use the binomial distribution along with the conditional probability.

Conditional Probability

We use the conditional probability formula to solve this question. It is

P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}

In which

P(B|A) is the probability of event B happening, given that A happened.

P(A \cap B) is the probability of both A and B happening.

P(A) is the probability of A happening.

Binomial probability distribution

The binomial probability is the probability of exactly x successes on n repeated trials, and X can only have two outcomes.

P(X = x) = C_{n,x}.p^{x}.(1-p)^{n-x}

In which C_{n,x} is the number of different combinations of x objects from a set of n elements, given by the following formula.

C_{n,x} = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!}

And p is the probability of X happening.

a) If it has an emergency locator, what is the probability that it will not be discovered?

Event A: Has an emergency locator

Event B: Not located.

Probability of having an emergency locator:

66% of 72%(Are discovered).

20% of 100 - 72 = 28%(not discovered). So

P(A) = 0.66*0.72 + 0.2*0.28 = 0.5312

Probability of having an emergency locator and not being discovered:

20% of 28%. So

P(A cap B) = 0.2*0.28 = 0.056

Probability:

P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.056}{0.5312} = 0.105

0.105 = 10.5% probability that it will not be discovered if it has an emergency locator.

b) If it does not have an emergency locator, what is the probability that it will be discovered?

Probability of not having an emergency locator:

0.5312 of having. So

P(A) = 1 - 0.5312 = 0.4688

Probability of not having an emergency locator and being discovered:

34% of 72%. So

P(A \cap B) = 0.34*0.72 = 0.2448

Probability:

P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.2448}{0.4688} = 0.522

0.522 = 52.2% probability that it will be discovered if it does not have an emergency locator.

c) If we consider 10 light aircraft that disappeared in flight with an emergency recorder, what is the probability that 7 of them are discovered?

p is the probability of being discovered with the emergency recorder:

0.5312 probability of having the emergency recorder.

Probability of having the emergency recorder and being located:

66% of 72%. So

P(A \cap B) = 0.66*0.72 = 0.4752

Probability of being discovered, given that it has the emergency recorder:

p = P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.4752}{0.5312} = 0.8946

This question asks for P(X = 7) when n = 10. So

P(X = x) = C_{n,x}.p^{x}.(1-p)^{n-x}

P(X = 7) = C_{10,7}.(0.8946)^{7}.(0.1054)^{3} = 0.064

0.064 = 6.4% probability that 7 of them are discovered.

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Sidana [21]

Answer: 14,000 i think

Step-by-step explanation:

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emmasim [6.3K]

Answer:

(3,0)

Step-by-step explanation:

The axis of symmetry is midway between the roots

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3 years ago
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Need help omg I’ve been stuck
katrin2010 [14]

Answer:

x = -2.75

Step-by-step explanation:

:D

14 - 3 = 11

11 / -4 = -2.75

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3 years ago
Find the arc length of the partial circle.
Kay [80]

Answer:

12.42 units

Step by step explanation:

Given,

length of the radius = 2 units

Therefore, arc length of the complete circle = 2 × 3.14 × 2 units = 12.56 units

Therefore, arc length of the partial circle = 3/4 × 12.56 units

= 12.42 units

3 0
3 years ago
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