The approach to evaluating the government’s growth strategy starts by ruling out two possible favorable events which an analyst cannot safely take as given. These favorable events would be: (1) a swift normalization of relations with the U.S.; and (2) the discovery and rapid exploitation of sizable oil fields. At the same time I also leave out possible events or shocks that could derail the growth strategy, for instance the swift cessation of concessional oil supplies and other business arrangements with Venezuela or a catastrophic weather event. Such events are not unlikely and will be dealt with in a following section.
It is clear from actions and statements by the government that the new approach to growth and development features two factors, the improved use of human capital and a new opening to foreign investment. A better use of labor and associated human capital is at the heart of the shift of employment from the state sector to the private sector. As of 2013 the share of output of the non-cooperative private sector was about 24% of GDP.2 The other key mechanism to improve utilization of Cuba’s considerable endowment of human capital is by way of the export of services of health and other professionals. Such non-tourism services exports have boomed from 3.2% of GDP in 2000 to 14.3% in 2012 according to official Cuban data (ONE, 2013 and previous issues).
