Answer:
The probability that the person reaches home for the holidays is 0.94.
Step-by-step explanation:
A person wants to go home for Thanksgiving and he has booked a flight with US-Scareways.
It is provided that in 30 percent of the cases the company has canceled the flight you were on.
SO there is 70% chance of reaching home without any difficulties.
In case the flight is cancelled, then as a backup the person's friend Walter offers a ride home.
Walter also has a 80% chance of giving the ride. So there is 20% chance the person will not be able to reach hone if his flight gets cancelled.
Consider the tree diagram below.
The events are:
FC = flight is cancelled
FT = Flight is on time
H = reaches home
Compute the probability that the person reaches home as follows:
P (Reaching Home) = P (H|FC) × P (FC) + P (FT)
Thus, the probability that the person reaches home for the holidays is 0.94.
