Question

Weekly demand figures at Hot Pizza are as follows:

Answer 1

Answer:

MAD:  10.04,  11.53

MAPSE: 10% ,  12%

MSE : 146.33,  178.72

Bias : -0.56 , -0.96

3-week moving average method is better

Explanation:

i ) Evaluate MAD ( average of absolute errors )

using  3 week moving average

= 10.04

using simple exponential smoothing

= 11.53

ii) MAPSE ( average of absolute percentage error )

using 3 week moving average

= 10%

using simple exponential smoothing

= 12%

iii) MSE ( average of Squared Errors )

3 week MV = 146.33 ,  Simple exponential smoothing = 178.72.

iv) Bias

3 week MV = -5/9 = -0.56,  Simple exponential smoothing = -8.69/9 = -0.96.

v) TS  ( Total error / MAD )

3 week MV = -5 / 10.04 = -0.49 ,

simple exponential smoothing  = -8.69 / 11.53 = -0.75

b) I prefer 3-week moving average based on the values of MAD , MAPE, MSE, bias and TS which shows that there is a better estimate when using the 3 -weeks moving average.

Attached below is the Tabular calculations of the required parameters for the  question