Answer:
With replacement, 0.2109 = 21.09% probability that there are 2 black balls and 2 white balls in the sample.
Without replacement, 0.2116 = 21.16% probability that there are 2 black balls and 2 white balls in the sample.
Step-by-step explanation:
For sampling with replacement, we use the binomial distribution. Without replacement, we use the hypergeometric distribution.
Binomial probability distribution
The binomial probability is the probability of exactly x successes on n repeated trials, and X can only have two outcomes.
![P(X = x) = C_{n,x}.p^{x}.(1-p)^{n-x}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28X%20%3D%20x%29%20%3D%20C_%7Bn%2Cx%7D.p%5E%7Bx%7D.%281-p%29%5E%7Bn-x%7D)
In which
is the number of different combinations of x objects from a set of n elements, given by the following formula.
![C_{n,x} = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=C_%7Bn%2Cx%7D%20%3D%20%5Cfrac%7Bn%21%7D%7Bx%21%28n-x%29%21%7D)
And p is the probability of X happening.
Hypergeometric distribution:
The probability of x sucesses is given by the following formula:
![P(X = x) = h(x,N,n,k) = \frac{C_{k,x}*C_{N-k,n-x}}{C_{N,n}}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28X%20%3D%20x%29%20%3D%20h%28x%2CN%2Cn%2Ck%29%20%3D%20%5Cfrac%7BC_%7Bk%2Cx%7D%2AC_%7BN-k%2Cn-x%7D%7D%7BC_%7BN%2Cn%7D%7D)
In which:
x is the number of sucesses.
N is the size of the population.
n is the size of the sample.
k is the total number of desired outcomes.
is the number of different combinations of x objects from a set of n elements, given by the following formula.
![C_{n,x} = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=C_%7Bn%2Cx%7D%20%3D%20%5Cfrac%7Bn%21%7D%7Bx%21%28n-x%29%21%7D)
Sampling with replacement:
I consider a success choosing a black ball, so ![p = \frac{50}{150+50} = \frac{50}{200} = 0.25](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=p%20%3D%20%5Cfrac%7B50%7D%7B150%2B50%7D%20%3D%20%5Cfrac%7B50%7D%7B200%7D%20%3D%200.25)
We want 2 black balls and 2 white, 2 + 2 = 4, so
, and we want P(X = 2).
![P(X = x) = C_{n,x}.p^{x}.(1-p)^{n-x}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28X%20%3D%20x%29%20%3D%20C_%7Bn%2Cx%7D.p%5E%7Bx%7D.%281-p%29%5E%7Bn-x%7D)
![P(X = 2) = C_{4,2}.(0.25)^{2}.(0.75)^{2} = 0.2109](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28X%20%3D%202%29%20%3D%20C_%7B4%2C2%7D.%280.25%29%5E%7B2%7D.%280.75%29%5E%7B2%7D%20%3D%200.2109)
With replacement, 0.2109 = 21.09% probability that there are 2 black balls and 2 white balls in the sample.
Sampling without replacement:
150 + 50 = 200 total balls, so ![N = 200](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=N%20%3D%20200)
Sample of 4, so ![n = 4](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=n%20%3D%204)
50 are black, so ![k = 50](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=k%20%3D%2050)
We want P(X = 2).
![P(X = 2) = h(2,200,4,50) = \frac{C_{50,2}*C_{150,2}}{C_{200,4}} = 0.2116](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28X%20%3D%202%29%20%3D%20h%282%2C200%2C4%2C50%29%20%3D%20%5Cfrac%7BC_%7B50%2C2%7D%2AC_%7B150%2C2%7D%7D%7BC_%7B200%2C4%7D%7D%20%3D%200.2116)
Without replacement, 0.2116 = 21.16% probability that there are 2 black balls and 2 white balls in the sample.