Question

A stock is expected to return 8% in a normal economy, 12% if the economy booms, and lose 3% if the economy moves into a recessionary period. Economists predict a 56% chance of a normal economy, a 25% chance of a boom, and a 19% chance of a recession. The expected return on the stock is __%.

Answer 1

Answer: 6.91%

Explanation:

Expected return = Sum of (Probability of state of economy * Return given state of economy)

= (56% * 8%) + (12% * 25%) + (19% * -3%)

= 4.48% + 3% - 0.57%

= 6.91%