The possible outcome of football game is truly (Win lose or draw), hence, if the outcome only depends on just that one team, then the probability of winning is (required / total possible outcomes ; = 1/3). However, in football a game is played with an opposition team, of which there is a lot to consider in other to arrive at a winning probability, one is the relative strength of the teams, result of past meetings and so on. Hence, concluding that the probability of wining a football match is 1/3 based on the possible outcome (Win, lose or draw) is wrong.
