Answer:
True.
Explanation:
The bullwhip effect can be explained as an occurrence detected by the supply chain where orders sent to the manufacturer and supplier create larger variance then the sales to the end customer. These irregular orders in the lower part of the supply chain develop to be more distinct higher up in the supply chain. This variance can interrupt the smoothness of the supply chain process as each link in the supply chain will over or underestimate the product demand resulting in exaggerated fluctuations.
CAUSES
There are many factors said to cause or contribute to the bullwhip effect in supply chains; the following list names a few:
1. Disorganization between each supply chain link; with ordering larger or smaller amounts of a product than is needed due to an over or under reaction to the supply chain beforehand.
2. Lack of communication between each link in the supply chain makes it difficult for processes to run smoothly. Managers can perceive a product demand quite differently within different links of the supply chain and therefore order different quantities.
3. Free return policies; customers may intentionally overstate demands due to shortages and then cancel when the supply becomes adequate again, without return forfeit retailers will continue to exaggerate their needs and cancel orders; resulting in excess material.
4. Order batching; companies may not immediately place an order with their supplier; often accumulating the demand first. Companies may order weekly or even monthly. This creates variability in the demand as there may for instance be a surge in demand at some stage followed by no demand after.
6. Price variations – special discounts and other cost changes can upset regular buying patterns; buyers want to take advantage on discounts offered during a short time period, this can cause uneven production and distorted demand information.
7. Demand information – relying on past demand information to estimate current demand information of a product does not take into account any fluctuations that may occur in demand over a period of time.
Answer:
Conditional probability of a student, who has actually plagiarized, answering "yes" to the survey is 0.375.
Explanation:
This is easily explanined if we first take the probability of each answer (yes / no) depending on what they fet flipping the coin.
- Tails [always yes] = 0.5 -> Plagiarism = 0.5
- Heads [yes or no] = 0.5 > Two option: (1) True Plagiarism = 0.3; (2) False Pagiarism = 0.7
Now, what we have to do is multiply the "yes" answers from both possible coin tosses (0.5 x 0.3) and divide them by the rest of probable answers (0.5, 0.5, 0.5 & 0.3).
Better expressed like this:
0. 5 x 0.3 / 0.3x0.5+0.5x0.5 = 0.375
The correct answer is true. It is because with immoral living, an individual likely does things that violates the law or do things that are considered to be wrong as one doesn't know to differentiate what is right and wrong, by this, it is likely that the person doesn't know what is right or what is true that may lead him or her to formulate false doctrine.<span />
