The Blue Devils are trying to sell us a bridge and a bill of goods.
But we are sharp, and we are not falling for their story.
We are smart enough to spot two glaring weaknesses in their story.
1). There is no way to win .5 of a game.
2). There is no way to win 37 games if you've
only played 24 so far.
Answer:
a) <u>0.4647</u>
b) <u>24.6 secs</u>
Step-by-step explanation:
Let T be interval between two successive barges
t(t) = λe^λt where t > 0
The mean of the exponential
E(T) = 1/λ
E(T) = 8
1/λ = 8
λ = 1/8
∴ t(t) = 1/8×e^-t/8 [ t > 0]
Now the probability we need
p[T<5] = ₀∫⁵ t(t) dt
=₀∫⁵ 1/8×e^-t/8 dt
= 1/8 ₀∫⁵ e^-t/8 dt
= 1/8 [ (e^-t/8) / -1/8 ]₀⁵
= - [ e^-t/8]₀⁵
= - [ e^-5/8 - 1 ]
= 1 - e^-5/8 = <u>0.4647</u>
Therefore the probability that the time interval between two successive barges is less than 5 minutes is <u>0.4647</u>
<u></u>
b)
Now we find t such that;
p[T>t] = 0.95
so
t_∫¹⁰ t(x) dx = 0.95
t_∫¹⁰ 1/8×e^-x/8 = 0.95
1/8 t_∫¹⁰ e^-x/8 dx = 0.95
1/8 [( e^-x/8 ) / - 1/8 ]¹⁰_t = 0.95
- [ e^-x/8]¹⁰_t = 0.96
- [ 0 - e^-t/8 ] = 0.95
e^-t/8 = 0.95
take log of both sides
log (e^-t/8) = log (0.95)
-t/8 = In(0.95)
-t/8 = -0.0513
t = 8 × 0.0513
t = 0.4104 (min)
so we convert to seconds
t = 0.4104 × 60
t = <u>24.6 secs</u>
Therefore the time interval t such that we can be 95% sure that the time interval between two successive barges will be greater than t is <u>24.6 secs</u>
