Answer:
1.27%
Step-by-step explanation:
To solve this problem, we may consider a binomial distribution where a customer can either accept or reject (and return) the diskette package.
Lets consider some aspects:
1. From the formulation of the exercise we know that a package is accepted if it has at most 1 defective diskette. So our event A is defined as:
A = 0 or 1 defective diskette
2. The probability of a diskette being defective is 0.01
3. Each package contains 10 diskettes.
If X is defined as number of defective diskettes in the package, the probability of X is given by a binomial distribution with probability 0.01 and n=10
X ~ Bin(p=0.01, n=10)
Let us remember the calculation of probability for the binomial distribution:
with x = 0, 1, 2, 3,…, n
Where
n: number of independent trials
p: success probability
x: number of successes in n trials
In our case success means finding a defective diskette, therefore
n=10
p=0.01
And for x we just need 0 or 1 defective diskette to reject the package
Hence,
with x = 0, 1
So,
![P(A)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28A%29%3DP%28X%3D0%29%2BP%28X%3D1%29)
![P(A)=10C0*0.01^{0}*(1-0.01)^{(10-0)} + 10C1*0.01^{1}*(1-0.01)^{(9)}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28A%29%3D10C0%2A0.01%5E%7B0%7D%2A%281-0.01%29%5E%7B%2810-0%29%7D%20%2B%2010C1%2A0.01%5E%7B1%7D%2A%281-0.01%29%5E%7B%289%29%7D)
![P(A)=0.99^{10}+10*0.01*0.99^{9}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28A%29%3D0.99%5E%7B10%7D%2B10%2A0.01%2A0.99%5E%7B9%7D)
![P(A)=0.9957](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28A%29%3D0.9957)
Now, because we have 3 packages and we might reject just 1 of them, we can find this probability like this:
![3*(1-P(A))*P(A)*P(A) = (1-0.9957)*0.9957*0.9957=0.0127](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=3%2A%281-P%28A%29%29%2AP%28A%29%2AP%28A%29%20%3D%20%281-0.9957%29%2A0.9957%2A0.9957%3D0.0127)
Finally, we have that the probability of returning exactly one of the three packages is 1.27%