Question

It is sometimes said that "extraordinary claims and theories require extraordinary evidence". (What's meant by "extraordinary evidence" is a great deal of evidence, and what's meant by "extraordinary claims" is claims that are strange or out-of-the-ordinary. So in other words, the claim is that “very strange or out-of-the-ordinary claims or theories require a great deal of evidence before we believe them”.)
Explain how this idea fits our framework of updating and evaluating theories, using all of the following four concepts: prior probability, strength factor, coherence, and simplicity.

Answer 1

This idea shows that the study and presentation of new theories must be presented using well-structured, clear, and complete evidence so that it is possible for the theory to be credited.

We can arrive at this answer because:

• A theory represents new information that tries to explain an interesting element in the real world.
• As the theory explains an element that is often unknown, it must present concrete and understandable evidence that confirms its veracity and allows people to understand the presented information.
• For this, the evidence must have a simple and coherent language, which allows the full understanding of the theory by anyone.
• The evidence must also have a strength factor, which is the ability to attract the attention of individuals to the subject being addressed.
• Finally, the evidence must present prior probability, which is the presentation of a possible result, which was predicted before the data were analyzed.

Thus, we can see that the use of evidence must be done in an orderly manner, with precise characteristics.

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