Question

At the beginning of a certain study of a group of persons, 15% were classified as heavy smokers, 30% as light smokers, and 55% as nonsmokers. In the five-year study, it was determined that the death rates of the heavy and light smokers were five and three times that of the nonsmokers, respectively. A randomly selected participant died over the five-year period: calculate the probability that the participant was a nonsmoker.

Answer 1

The probability that the participant was a nonsmoker is 25%.

Probability

Given that at the beginning of a certain study of a group of persons, 15% were classified as heavy smokers, 30% as light smokers, and 55% as nonsmokers, and in the five-year study, it was determined that the death rates of the heavy and light smokers were five and three times that of the nonsmokers, respectively, to calculate, if a randomly selected participant died over the five-year period, the probability that the participant was a nonsmoker, the following calculation must be performed:

• 15 x 5 = 75
• 30 x 3 = 90
• 55 = 55
• 55 + 90 + 75 = 220
• 220 = 100
• 55 = X
• 55 x 100 / 220 = x
• 5500 / 220 = X
• 25 = X

Therefore, the probability that the participant was a nonsmoker is 25%.

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