The stability of teacher value-added estimates over time can be affected by the previous achievement level of a teacher's students.
When comparing teachers with initially higher performing students to teachers with initially lower performing students, the year-to-year stability level of teacher value-added estimates is typically 25% to more than 50% higher for teachers serving initially higher performing students.
Furthermore, when the number of student observations is artificially set to the same level and the data is pooled over two years to compute teacher value-added, some differences are detected. Finally, the paper provides a policy simulation that shows that teachers who work with students who have certain characteristics are more likely to be sanctioned in a high stakes policy based on value-added estimates and are more likely to see their estimates vary from year to year due to low stability.
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