Question

Your car breaks down in a remote location. your cell phone has enough power left in it to send four text messages. if there is a 30% chance that any text you send will be read by the recipient, what is the probability that you will send all four texts in order to reach help (i.e., the probability that your fourth text will be the first and only one read)?

Answer 1

There is a 70% chance that any one text will not be read, so 0.7³×0.3=0.1029 is the probability that the fourth text will be read. This is the same as 10.29%.