Question

Evan is performing a marble experiment in math class. His teacher places an equal number of black, red, blue, and white marbles in a bag. Then, Evan randomly takes out a marble, records the result, and puts the marble back in the bag. Each of the first five times Evan takes out a marble, he gets a red marble.
A. What is the theoretical probability of Evan picking a red marble next time? Based on Evan's results, what is the experimental probability of Evan picking a red marble next time?

B. Explain the difference between the two probabilities you found in part A.

C. What is the theoretical probability and likelihood of getting five red marbles in a row?

Answer 1

A. The theoretical probability of Evan picking red is 1/4. The experimental probability is 1.

B. In theory, Evan has an equal chance of choosing any colored marble. However, he has gotten red every time, so the experimental probability will be 1.

C. The theoretical probability of getting five reds in a row is 1/256