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jeka94
3 years ago
15

The mayor of a town has proposed a plan for the annexation of a new bridge. A political study took a sample of 1000 voters in th

e town and found that 42% of the residents favored annexation. Using the data, a political strategist wants to test the claim that the percentage of residents who favor annexation is more than 39%. Testing at the 0.02 level, is there enough evidence to support the strategist's claim?
Mathematics
1 answer:
garri49 [273]3 years ago
4 0

Answer:

z=\frac{0.42 -0.39}{\sqrt{\frac{0.39(1-0.39)}{1000}}}=1.945  

p_v =P(Z>1.945)=0.0259  

If we compare the p value obtained with the significance level given \alpha=0.02 we have p_v>\alpha so we can conclude that we have enough evidence to FAIL to reject the null hypothesis, and we can said that at 2% of significance the proportion of residents who favored annexation is not significantly higher than 0.39.  

Step-by-step explanation:

1) Data given and notation  

n=1000 represent the random sample taken

\hat p=0.42 estimated proportion of residents who favored annexation

p_o=0.39 is the value that we want to test

\alpha=0.02 represent the significance level

Confidence=98% or 0.98

z would represent the statistic (variable of interest)

p_v represent the p value (variable of interest)  

2) Concepts and formulas to use  

We need to conduct a hypothesis in order to test the claim that the proportion is higher than 0.39:  

Null hypothesis:p\leq 0.39  

Alternative hypothesis:p > 0.39  

When we conduct a proportion test we need to use the z statistic, and the is given by:  

z=\frac{\hat p -p_o}{\sqrt{\frac{p_o (1-p_o)}{n}}} (1)  

The One-Sample Proportion Test is used to assess whether a population proportion \hat p is significantly different from a hypothesized value p_o.

3) Calculate the statistic  

Since we have all the info requires we can replace in formula (1) like this:  

z=\frac{0.42 -0.39}{\sqrt{\frac{0.39(1-0.39)}{1000}}}=1.945  

4) Statistical decision  

It's important to refresh the p value method or p value approach . "This method is about determining "likely" or "unlikely" by determining the probability assuming the null hypothesis were true of observing a more extreme test statistic in the direction of the alternative hypothesis than the one observed". Or in other words is just a method to have an statistical decision to fail to reject or reject the null hypothesis.  

The significance level provided \alpha=0.02. The next step would be calculate the p value for this test.  

Since is a right tailed test the p value would be:  

p_v =P(Z>1.945)=0.0259  

If we compare the p value obtained with the significance level given \alpha=0.02 we have p_v>\alpha so we can conclude that we have enough evidence to FAIL to reject the null hypothesis, and we can said that at 2% of significance the proportion of residents who favored annexation is not significantly higher than 0.39.  

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