Donald P. Green and David H. Yoon, 2002 "Reconciling Individual and Aggregate Evidence Concerning Partisan Stability:
<h3><u>Applying Time-Series Models to Panel Survey Data</u></h3>
Abstract.
- Party identification has been studied extensively using both individual- and aggregate-level data. This paper attempts to formulate a statistical model that can account for the range of empirical generalizations that have emerged from aggregate time series and panel surveys. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we show that only certain types of data generation processes can account for these empirical regularities. Deciding which of the remaining types best explains the data means investigating the ways in which individual-level partisanship behaves over time.
- Partisanship at the aggregate-level tends to be highly autocorrelated, re-equilibrating slowly in the wake of each perturbation. Working downward from the analysis of aggregate data, previous researchers argued that aggregate partisanship is fractionally integrated and contended that dynamics at the individual level are therefore heterogeneous. Using data from three panel surveys, we present the first direct assessment of individual-level dynamics. We also investigate the hypothesis that these dynamics vary among individuals, a claim that motivates much recent work on fractionally integrated time series.
- The model that best explains the observed characteristics of party identification is one in which individuals respond in similar ways to external shocks, re-equilibrate rapidly thereafter, and seldom change their equilibrium level of partisan attachment.
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When the government lowers the interest rates, there is generally (and this is hoped for as well) an increase in the amount of credit available and used in the marketplace.
The general hope is that the public will use the lower interest rates to buy, build, and spend.
Answer:
Island hopping: A military strategy employed by the Allies in the Pacific War against the Axis powers (most notably Japan) during World War II. It entailed taking over an island and establishing a military base there. The base was in turn used as a launching point for the attack and takeover of another island.
Explanation:
When two countries where at war they faced each other at the battle of Gettysburg. The two countries decided to make a truce until a random gunshot was fired. At that moment, the two enemies started to kill each other. At the end of the battle, no one knows who fired the first shot.
The boston tea party happened in New england