Question

Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election prior to results being tallied. suppose a referendum to increase funding for education is on the ballot in a large town​ (voting population over​ 100,000). an exit poll of 200200 voters finds that 9898 voted for the referendum. how likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is 0.510.51​? based on your​ result, comment on the dangers of using exit polling to call elections.

Answer 1

The result is not unusual since the probability that p is equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion is greater than 5% (153/300 = 0.51). Thus, it is not unusual for a wrong call to be made in an election if exit polling alone is considered.