Answer:
The U.S. economy has been in the expansion phase of the business cycle since the last trough in the fourth quarter of 2008. That's more than 10 years. The expansion phase is the economy growing a healthy 2 to 3%. Stocks enter a bull market. Economist John Kenneth Galbraith once said there are two types of economic forecasters: "Those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know." It's difficult enough to get an accurate read on where we are at in the business cycle. Figuring out where we are going months or years from now can seem next to impossible. Here are some common indicators to make the process seem less like guesswork.
The S&P 500: This is a collection of 500 of the largest publicly traded stocks in the United States. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, by comparison, comprises only 30 stocks. As a result, the S&P 500 is a more thorough gauge of where the U.S. economy stands at any given time.
Unemployment claims: The number of workers claiming unemployment benefits topped 10% in 2009, but it has dropped to less than 4% as of 2018. In general, rising unemployment rates are often seen as an indicator of trouble for the economy, and falling unemployment rates can be viewed as the opposite. As with all potential indicators, though, look beyond the surface. For example, the unemployment rate measures only those people who either are working or are seeking work. Those who are not working by choice are not counted. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of 16- to 24-year-olds not working because they are going to school has risen since 2009 while the unemployment rate has dropped.
Consumer confidence: The consumer confidence index measures how willing people are to make purchases in any upcoming 12-month period. A rating higher than 100 means people plan to spend money, while a rating lower than 100 indicates that people are more likely to add to their savings and hold off on major purchases. The less willing people are to spend their money, the worse that can be for the economy.
Housing: An increase in new construction or rising values for existing homes can be positive indicators for the economy and the business cycle. On the flip side, if new construction slows or existing home prices plateau, that can be a sign of trouble.
