Say she chooses topic A. She needs at least one book to arrive on time. The probability that no books arrive on time is 0.1 x 0.1 = 0.01 so the probability that at least one book arrives on time is 1 - 0.01 = 0.99. Say she chooses topic B. She needs at least two books to arrive on time. The probability of no books arriving on time is 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 = 0.0001. The probability of exactly one book arriving on time is 4 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.9 = 0.0036 (binomial probability distribution formula - the 4 comes from 4C1). So the probability of her not getting enough books is 0.0001 + 0.0036 = 0.0037 and the probability she does get the books she needs on time is 1 - 0.0037 = 0.9963. So she should choose topic B.
