Question

An article suggests that a poisson process can be used to represent the occurrence of structural loads over time. suppose the mean time between occurrences of loads is 0.5 year. (a) how many loads can be expected to occur during a 2-year period? 1 4 loads (b) what is the probability that more than six loads occur during a 2-year period? (round your answer to three decimal places.) 2 your answer cannot be understood or graded. more information (c) how long must a time period be so that the probability of no loads occurring during that period is at most 0.2? (round your answer to four decimal places.) 3 yr

Answer 1

Answer:

a) $\lambda_1 = 2*2 = 4$

And let X our random variable who represent the "occurrence of structural loads over time" we know that:

$X(2) \sim Poi (4)$

And the expected value is $E(X) = \lambda =4$

So we expect 4 number of loads in the 2 year period.

b) $P(X(2) >6) = 1-P(X(2)\leq 6)= 1-[P(X(2) =0)+P(X(2) =1)+P(X(2) =2)+...+P(X(2) =6)]$

$P(X(2) >6) = 1- [e^{-4}+ \frac{e^{-4}4^1}{1!}+ \frac{e^{-4}4^2}{2!} +\frac{e^{-4}4^3}{3!} +\frac{e^{-4}4^4}{4!}+\frac{e^{-4}4^5}{5!}+\frac{e^{-4}4^6}{6!}]$

And we got: $P(X(2) >6) =1-0.889=0.111$

c)  $e^{-2t} \leq 2$

We can apply natural log in both sides and we got:

$-2t \leq ln(0.2)$

If we multiply by -1 both sides of the inequality we have:

$2t \geq -ln(0.2)$

And if we divide both sides by 2 we got:

$t \geq \frac{-ln(0.2)}{2}$

$t \geq 0.8047$

And then we can conclude that the time period with any load would be 0.8047 years.

Step-by-step explanation:

Previous concepts

The exponential distribution is "the probability distribution of the time between events in a Poisson process (a process in which events occur continuously and independently at a constant average rate). It is a particular case of the gamma distribution". The probability density function is given by:

$P(X=x)=\lambda e^{-\lambda x}$

The exponential distribution is "the probability distribution of the time between events in a Poisson process (a process in which events occur continuously and independently at a constant average rate). It is a particular case of the gamma distribution"

Solution to the problem

Let X our random variable who represent the "occurrence of structural loads over time"

For this case we have the value for the mean given $\mu = 0.5$ and we can solve for the parameter $\lambda$ like this:

$\frac{1}{\lambda} = 0.5$

$\lambda =2$

So then $X(t) \sim Poi (\lambda t)$

X follows a Poisson process

Part a

For this case since we are interested in the number of loads in a 2 year period the new rate would be given by:

$\lambda_1 = 2*2 = 4$

And let X our random variable who represent the "occurrence of structural loads over time" we know that:

$X(2) \sim Poi (4)$

And the expected value is $E(X) = \lambda =4$

So we expect 4 number of loads in the 2 year period.

Part b

For this case we want the following probability:

$P(X(2) >6)$

And we can use the complement rule like this

$P(X(2) >6) = 1-P(X(2)\leq 6)= 1-[P(X(2) =0)+P(X(2) =1)+P(X(2) =2)+...+P(X(2) =6)]$

And we can solve this like this using the masss function:

$P(X(2) >6) = 1- [e^{-4}+ \frac{e^{-4}4^1}{1!}+ \frac{e^{-4}4^2}{2!} +\frac{e^{-4}4^3}{3!} +\frac{e^{-4}4^4}{4!}+\frac{e^{-4}4^5}{5!}+\frac{e^{-4}4^6}{6!}]$

And we got: $P(X(2) >6) =1-0.889=0.111$

Part c

For this case we know that the arrival time follows an exponential distribution and let T the random variable:

$T \sim Exp(\lambda=2)$

The probability of no arrival during a period of duration t is given by:

$f(T) = e^{-\lambda t}$

And we want to find a value of t who satisfy this:

$e^{-2t} \leq 2$

We can apply natural log in both sides and we got:

$-2t \leq ln(0.2)$

If we multiply by -1 both sides of the inequality we have:

$2t \geq -ln(0.2)$

And if we divide both sides by 2 we got:

$t \geq \frac{-ln(0.2)}{2}$

$t \geq 0.8047$

And then we can conclude that the time period with any load would be 0.8047 years.