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damaskus [11]
3 years ago
13

Chris went on a vacation for a week and asked his brother Paul to feed his old cat Charlie. But Paul is forgetful, and Chris is

70% sure Paul will forget to feed his cat. Without food, Charlie will die with probability 0.5. With food, he will die with probability 0.03. Chris came back from vacation and found Charlie alive. What is the probability that Paul forgot to feed Charlie (round off to third decimal place)?
Mathematics
1 answer:
fenix001 [56]3 years ago
4 0

Answer:

There is a 54.6% probability that Paul forgot to feed the cat.

Step-by-step explanation:

We have these following probabilities:

A 70% probability that Paul forgets to feed the cat.

A 30% probability that Paul feeds the cat.

If not fed, a 50% probability that the cat dies.

If fed, a 3% probability that the cat dies.

The question can be formulated as the following problem:

What is the probability of B happening, knowing that A has happened.

It can be calculated by the following formula

P = \frac{P(B).P(A/B)}{P(A)}

Where P(B) is the probability of B happening, P(A/B) is the probability of A happening knowing that B happened and P(A) is the probability of A happening.

In this problem we have the following question

What is the probability that Paul forgot to feed the cat, given that he was alive.

So

P(B) is the probability of Paul forgetting to feed the car. So P(B) = 0.7

P(A/B) is the probability of the cat being alive, given that he was not fed. So P(A/B) = 0.5

P(A) is the probability of the cat being alive. If he is fed, there is a 97% probability of him being alive. There is a 30% probability that he is fed.

If he is not fed, there is a 50% probability of him being alive. There is a 70% probability that he is not fed. So:

P(A) = 0.97*0.30 + 0.5*0.7 = 0.641

The probability that Paul forgot to fed the cat, given that Chris found the cat alive is:

P = \frac{P(B).P(A/B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.5*0.7}{0.641} = 0.546

There is a 54.6% probability that Paul forgot to feed the cat.

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Which of the following statements about the polynomial function f(x)=x^3+2x^2-1
ch4aika [34]

x = -1

x =(1-√5)/-2= 0.618

x =(1+√5)/-2=-1.618

Step  1  :

Equation at the end of step  1  :

 0 -  (((x3) +  2x2) -  1)  = 0  

Step  2  :  

Step  3  :

Pulling out like terms :

3.1     Pull out like factors :

  -x3 - 2x2 + 1  =   -1 • (x3 + 2x2 - 1)  

3.2    Find roots (zeroes) of :       F(x) = x3 + 2x2 - 1

Rational Roots Test is one of the above mentioned tools. It would only find Rational Roots that is numbers  x  which can be expressed as the quotient of two integers

The Rational Root Theorem states that if a polynomial zeroes for a rational number  P/Q   then  P  is a factor of the Trailing Constant and  Q  is a factor of the Leading Coefficient

In this case, the Leading Coefficient is  1  and the Trailing Constant is  -1.

The factor(s) are:

of the Leading Coefficient :  1

of the Trailing Constant :  1

Let us test ....

  P    Q    P/Q    F(P/Q)     Divisor

     -1       1        -1.00        0.00      x + 1  

     1       1        1.00        2.00      

The Factor Theorem states that if P/Q is root of a polynomial then this polynomial can be divided by q*x-p Note that q and p originate from P/Q reduced to its lowest terms

In our case this means that

  x3 + 2x2 - 1  

can be divided with  x + 1  

Polynomial Long Division :

3.3    Polynomial Long Division

Dividing :  x3 + 2x2 - 1  

                             ("Dividend")

By         :    x + 1    ("Divisor")

dividend     x3  +  2x2      -  1  

- divisor  * x2     x3  +  x2          

remainder         x2      -  1  

- divisor  * x1         x2  +  x      

remainder          -  x  -  1  

- divisor  * -x0          -  x  -  1  

remainder                0

Quotient :  x2+x-1  Remainder:  0  

Trying to factor by splitting the middle term

3.4     Factoring  x2+x-1  

The first term is,  x2  its coefficient is  1 .

The middle term is,  +x  its coefficient is  1 .

The last term, "the constant", is  -1  

Step-1 : Multiply the coefficient of the first term by the constant   1 • -1 = -1  

Step-2 : Find two factors of  -1  whose sum equals the coefficient of the middle term, which is   1 .

     -1    +    1    =    0  

Observation : No two such factors can be found !!

Conclusion : Trinomial can not be factored

Equation at the end of step  3  :

 (-x2 - x + 1) • (x + 1)  = 0  

Step  4  :

Theory - Roots of a product :

4.1    A product of several terms equals zero.  

When a product of two or more terms equals zero, then at least one of the terms must be zero.  

We shall now solve each term = 0 separately  

In other words, we are going to solve as many equations as there are terms in the product  

Any solution of term = 0 solves product = 0 as well.

Parabola, Finding the Vertex :

4.2      Find the Vertex of   y = -x2-x+1

For any parabola,Ax2+Bx+C,the  x -coordinate of the vertex is given by  -B/(2A) . In our case the  x  coordinate is  -0.5000  

Plugging into the parabola formula  -0.5000  for  x  we can calculate the  y -coordinate :  

 y = -1.0 * -0.50 * -0.50 - 1.0 * -0.50 + 1.0

or   y = 1.250

Parabola, Graphing Vertex and X-Intercepts :

Root plot for :  y = -x2-x+1

Axis of Symmetry (dashed)  {x}={-0.50}  

Vertex at  {x,y} = {-0.50, 1.25}  

x -Intercepts (Roots) :

Root 1 at  {x,y} = { 0.62, 0.00}  

Root 2 at  {x,y} = {-1.62, 0.00}  

Solve Quadratic Equation by Completing The Square

4.3     Solving   -x2-x+1 = 0 by Completing The Square .

Multiply both sides of the equation by  (-1)  to obtain positive coefficient for the first term:

x2+x-1 = 0  Add  1  to both side of the equation :

  x2+x = 1

Now the clever bit: Take the coefficient of  x , which is  1 , divide by two, giving  1/2 , and finally square it giving  1/4  

Add  1/4  to both sides of the equation :

 On the right hand side we have :

  1  +  1/4    or,  (1/1)+(1/4)  

 The common denominator of the two fractions is  4   Adding  (4/4)+(1/4)  gives  5/4  

 So adding to both sides we finally get :

  x2+x+(1/4) = 5/4

Adding  1/4  has completed the left hand side into a perfect square :

  x2+x+(1/4)  =

  (x+(1/2)) • (x+(1/2))  =

 (x+(1/2))2

Things which are equal to the same thing are also equal to one another. Since

  x2+x+(1/4) = 5/4 and

  x2+x+(1/4) = (x+(1/2))2

then, according to the law of transitivity,

  (x+(1/2))2 = 5/4

We'll refer to this Equation as  Eq. #4.3.1  

The Square Root Principle says that When two things are equal, their square roots are equal.

Note that the square root of

  (x+(1/2))2   is

  (x+(1/2))2/2 =

 (x+(1/2))1 =

  x+(1/2)

Now, applying the Square Root Principle to  Eq. #4.3.1  we get:

  x+(1/2) = √ 5/4

Subtract  1/2  from both sides to obtain:

  x = -1/2 + √ 5/4

Since a square root has two values, one positive and the other negative

  x2 + x - 1 = 0

  has two solutions:

 x = -1/2 + √ 5/4

  or

 x = -1/2 - √ 5/4

Note that  √ 5/4 can be written as

 √ 5  / √ 4   which is √ 5  / 2

Solve Quadratic Equation using the Quadratic Formula

4.4     Solving    -x2-x+1 = 0 by the Quadratic Formula .

According to the Quadratic Formula,  x  , the solution for   Ax2+Bx+C  = 0  , where  A, B  and  C  are numbers, often called coefficients, is given by :

                                     

           - B  ±  √ B2-4AC

 x =   ————————

                     2A

 In our case,  A   =     -1

                     B   =    -1

                     C   =   1

Accordingly,  B2  -  4AC   =

                    1 - (-4) =

                    5

Applying the quadratic formula :

              1 ± √ 5

  x  =    ————

                  -2

 √ 5   , rounded to 4 decimal digits, is   2.2361

So now we are looking at:

          x  =  ( 1 ±  2.236 ) / -2

Two real solutions:

x =(1+√5)/-2=-1.618

or:

x =(1-√5)/-2= 0.618

Solving a Single Variable Equation :

4.5      Solve  :    x+1 = 0  

Subtract  1  from both sides of the equation :  

                     x = -1

Hope this helps.

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