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vitfil [10]
3 years ago
12

Days before a presidential​ election, a nationwide random sample of registered voters was taken. Based on this random​ sample, i

t was reported that​ "52% of registered voters plan on voting for Robert Smith with a margin of error of plus or minus​3%." The margin of error was based on a​ 95% confidence level. Can we say with​ 95% confidence that Robert Smith will win the election if he needs a simple majority of votes to​ win?
Mathematics
1 answer:
leonid [27]3 years ago
6 0

Answer:

No.

Step-by-step explanation:

Based on the​ sample, "52% of registered voters plan on voting for Robert Smith with a margin of error of plus or minus​3%." The margin of error was based on a​ 95% confidence level.

Then 95% Confidence Interval is between 49% and 55%. Since confidence interval also includes non-majority proportions, the assumption that "95% confidence, Robert Smith will win the election" cannot be made.

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c. If the procedure were repeated many times, 95% of the resulting confidence intervals would contain the population mean systolic blood pressure.

Step-by-step explanation:

Previous concepts

A confidence interval is "a range of values that’s likely to include a population value with a certain degree of confidence. It is often expressed a % where by a population means lies between an upper and lower interval".  

The margin of error is the range of values below and above the sample statistic in a confidence interval.  

Normal distribution, is a "probability distribution that is symmetric about the mean, showing that data near the mean are more frequent in occurrence than data far from the mean".  

Solution to the problem

The confidence interval for the mean is given by the following formula:  

\bar X \pm t_{\alpha/2}\frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} (1)  

In order to calculate the critical value t_{\alpha/2} we need to find first the degrees of freedom, given by:  

df=n-1=25-1=24  

Since the Confidence is 0.95 or 95%, the value of \alpha=0.05 and \alpha/2 =0.025, and we can use excel, a calculator or a table to find the critical value. The excel command would be: "=-T.INV(0.025,24)".And we see that t_{\alpha/2}=2.06  

Now we have everything in order to replace into formula (1), for this case we got:

122 \leq \mu \leq 138

The 95% confidence interval would be given by (122;138)

And the correct interpretation for this case is:

c. If the procedure were repeated many times, 95% of the resulting confidence intervals would contain the population mean systolic blood pressure.

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