Question

You are considering a new product launch. The project will cost $1,006,000, have a four-year life, and have no salvage value; depreciation is straight-line to zero. Sales are projected at 360 units per year; price per unit will be $19,800, variable cost per unit will be $16,300, and fixed costs will be $334,000 per year. The required return on the project is 14 percent, and the relevant tax rate is 40 percent.
Based on your experience, you think the unit sales, variable cost, and fixed cost projections given here are probably accurate to within ±10 percent.

Required:
(a)What are the best and worst case values for each of the projections? (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to the nearest whole number (e.g., 32)

Scenario Unit sales Variable costs Fixed costs
Base 360 $16,300 $334,000
Best
Worst
(b) What are the best- and worst-case OCFs and NPVs with these projections? (Do not round intermediate calculations. A negative amount should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answers to 2 decimal places (e.g., 32.16).)

OCF NPV
Best-case $ $
Worst-case $ $
(c) What is the base-case OCF and NPV? (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to 2 decimal places (e.g., 32.16).)
OCFbase $
NPVbase $
(d) What is the OCF and NPV with fixed costs of $344,000 per year? (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to 2 decimal places (e.g., 32.16).)
OCF $
NPV $
(e) What is the sensitivity of the NPV to changes in fixed costs? (Do not round intermediate calculations. Input the amount as a positive value. Round your answer to 2 decimal places (e.g., 32.16).)

Answer 1

Answer:

A) In Best Case: revenues rise by 10% while costs decline by 10%. In the worst case, profits are declining by 10%, while costs are rising by 10%.

Scenario   Unit sales         Variable costs Fixed costs

  Base      360                   $16,300          $334,000

  Best        396                    $14,670           $300,600

  Worst      324                    $17,930           $367,400

b), c) Using the tax shield approach, the OCF and NPV for the base case estimate is:

OCF(base) = [($19,800 – 16,300)(360) – 334,000](0.60) + 0.40(1,006,000/4)

OCF(base)= $656,200

NPV(base) = –$1,006,000 + $656,200(PVIFA14%,4)

NPV(base) = $905,978.01

OCF(worst) = [($19,800 – 17,930)(324) – 367,400](0.60) + 0.40(1,006,000/4)

OCF(worst)= $243,688

NPV(worst) = –$1,006,000 + $243,688(PVIFA14%,4)

NPV(worst) = $ (295,963.28)

OCF(best) = [($19,800 – 14,670)(396) – 300,600](0.60) + 0.40(1,006,000/4)

OCF(best)= $1,139,128

NPV(best) = –$1,006,000 + $1,139,128(PVIFA14%,4)

NPV(best) = $2,313,091.27

d) OCF and NPV with Fixed Costs 344,000

OCF(base) = [($19,800 – 16,300)(360) – 344,000](0.60) + 0.40(1,006,000/4)

OCF(base)= $650,200

NPV(base) = –$1,006,000 + $650,200(PVIFA14%,4)

NPV(base) = $888,295.74

e) (Change in NPV in Case d wrt Case c)/Change in FC,

(888,295.74 - 905,978.01)/(10,000) = -1.75