Question

The Law of Large Numbers states that as the number of trials of an experiment increases, the experimental probability of an event occurring approaches the theoretical probability of the event occurring. Jake received a "magic" coin from his uncle. He flipped it 100 times, and found that it came up heads 64% of the time. He flipped it another 500 times, and it came up heads 57% of the time. He then flipped it 1000 times, and it came up heads 58% of the time. Then, he flipped it 1500 times, and it came up heads 62% of the time. Based on the Law of Large Numbers, what do you think the theoretical probability of the magic coin coming up heads is? Explain how you could test your hypothesis.

Answer 1

The law of large number states that , if number of trials increases in an experiment , in a fair trial where each outcome has same chance of occurring or having equal probabilities,when total number of trials  goes higher and higher the probabilities of each single outcome becomes approximately equal.→→In case of Experimental Probability

The Coin Possessed by Jake is a Magic coin.

Now Outcomes received by jake when he tosses the coin certain number of times.He flipped it 100 times, and found that it came up heads 64% of the time. He flipped it another 500 times, and it came up heads 57% of the time. He then flipped it 1000 times, and it came up heads 58% of the time. Then, he flipped it 1500 times, and it came up heads 62% of the time.

Based on the information provided , it appears that coin is not fair . It is  Unbiased.So , if we apply law of large numbers here after number of trials will go higher and higher , the chances of coming head will be more than tail i.e theoretical probability of the magic coin coming up heads is> 50%.

To test my hypothesis i have used the information provided by Jake, which shows that coin is not fair. The probability of head has more than tail i.e by 14%, 7%,8% and 12%.