Question

Suppose the interest rate on a 1-year T-bond is 5.00% and that on a 2-year T-bond is 7.00%. Assume that the pure expectations theory is correct, what is the market's forecast for 1-year rates 1 year from now

Answer 1

Answer: 9.04%

Explanation:

1 year rate today = 5% = 0.05

2 years rate today = 7% = 0.07

Maturity of longer bond = 2

The ending return if the 2 years bond are bought will be thesame as the needed return on series of a year bond which will be 1.1449

The market's forecast for 1-year rates 1 year from now will be calculated as:

= 1.05(1+X) = 1.1449

1.05 + 1.05X = 1.1449

1.05X = 1.1449 - 1.05

1.05X = 0.0949

X = 0.0949/1.05

X = 0.090381

X = 9.04%