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drek231 [11]
3 years ago
14

Which of the following forecasting methods is very dependent on selection of the right individuals who will judgmentally be used

to actually generate the forecast?
a. Time series analysis
b. Simple moving average
c. Weighted moving average
d. Delphi method Linear regression
Mathematics
1 answer:
Pachacha [2.7K]3 years ago
4 0

Answer: The answer is option D. <em>Delphi Method Linear regression</em>

Step-by-step explanation: The <em>Delphi method </em>is a forecasting process framework used to estimate the likelihood and outcome of future events by group of <em>expert </em>with <em>relevant Knowledge</em>. The group of experts exchange views, and each independently gives estimates and assumptions to a facilitator who reviews the data and issues a summary report.

The steps involved in delphi method are;

  1. Choose facilitator
  2. Identifying experts
  3. Problem definition
  4. Round one questions
  5. Round two questions
  6. Round three questions
  7. Findings and conclusion

Note:

  • You may choose tom have more than three rounds of questions to reach a more accurate consensus
  • This technique is an iterative process, which tends to get broad range of opinions from the group of experts who will aid generation of forecast

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Solution

We can first express the country's population, p(t), in millions of people, as a function of the time t, measured in years from the initial time. Since we know the initial population p(0)=2 and the annual growth rate is 4%, then p(t) is an exponential function:
p(t)=2(1.04)t.

We are also given that the food supply grows at a constant rate. So we can express the country's food supply at time t, which we call f(t), as a linear function of t. Again, we know the initial value f(0)=4 and the constant rate of change is 0.5 million people per year, so we have:

f(t)=4+.5t.

Population_and_food__0b8e68db3f6589fe24c3ee35a51b9030
We are looking for the value of t which makes p(t) greater than f(t) for the first time.

We see from the graph that the two functions intersect at around t=78. So after 78 years the food supply is just barely enough for the country's population. After this point, however, we see that p(t)>f(t), so this country will first experience shortages of food after approximately 78 years.
If the country doubled its initial food supply, our new function for the food supply would be
h(t)=8+.5t
We would expect food shortages to occur, if at all, later than in part (a).
Population_and_food__733f1f7e58ef40bc21366ee85cd699d7
Again looking at the graph, we see that the two functions intersect, and so food shortages would still occur. We find p(t)=h(t) at roughly t=81. So, the country will first experience food shortages after 81 years. So doubling the initial food supply delays the eventual food shortage by only 3 years.
If the country doubled the rate at which its food supply increases, in addition to doubling its initial food supply, we have the new food supply function:
j(t)=8+t
We would expect, in this case, for food shortages to occur much later than in part (b), if at all.
Population_and_food__c8963d902bc506f5a01a9084ed9a7445
Looking at the graph we see that this time the food shortage occurs at t=103, about 25 years later than in part (a).

Examining the behavior of the exponential function more closely we observe, that the slope of the exponential function keeps increasing whereas the slope of any linear function is constant. Even if a linear function has a very large slope, an exponential function will eventually grow even faster and overtake the linear function.


I hope that helps!
6 0
4 years ago
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