Merlin Anson owns Unix Computers, a company with five employees. As a small business owner, he has several options for payroll p
1 answer:
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Answer:
Explanation:
Given that,
expects a return of $100,000 in the first year
loss of $80,000
probability that the store will be a success is 0.6
research will cost $20,000
0.6 probability that this information will be favorable
store will be a success increases to 0.9
store will be a success reduces to only 0.2
<h3>a) Decision tree is attached</h3>EMV= (payoff of first outcome) * (probability of first outcome) + (payoff of second outcome) * (probability of second outcome) + (payoff of third outcome) * (probability of third outcome)
EMV(node 1) = EMV(new store)
= ($100,000 * 0.6) + (-80,000 * 0.4)
=$28,000
EMV (node 2) = EMV (no store)
= $0
EMV (node 3) = EMV ( new store and favourable research)
= ($100,000 * 0.9) + (-80,000 * 0.1)
=$82,000
EMV (node 4) = EMV ( no store and favourable research)
= $0
EMV (node 5) = EMV ( new store and unfavourable research)
= ($100,000 * 0.2) + (-80,000 * 0.8)
= -$44,000
EMV (node 6) = EMV ( no new store and unfavourable research)
= $0
B) Here we compare EMV of not conducting the market research ans EMV of conducting the market research and the maximum EMV shall be taken for decision making
- Here the EMV of conducting the market research is higher than not conducting
Hence, the investor can go to market research test. If result is positive, she can invest in the store, if negative she can stop the proposal.
