Question

According to an article in the Wall Street Journal​, KB Home and other builders found demand for new houses increasing in 2017 as a result of an increase in the formation of new households. In the long​ run, formation of new households depends on population growth. ​Source: Laura Kusisto and Sarah​ Chaney, "U.S. Housing Starts Fell in April for Third Time in Four​ Months," Wall Street Journal​, May​ 16, 2017. Are firms like homebuilders that sell products whose demand depends partly on demographic factors likely to be more or less affected by the business cycle than are other firms whose products are less dependent on these factors​ (holding constant other factors that affect the demand for new​ houses)? Briefly explain.

Answer 1

Answer:

Generally speaking, demographic growth can affect the economy quite a lot, but the economy has a very little effect on demographic growth. E.g. the baby boomers were great for the economy during several decades, but there is no clear relationship between population growth and economic activity.

This means that companies like home builders whose demand depends on other factors besides the economy, will be less affected by economic recessions or expansions. E.g. the demographic growth in America was around 0.7% during 2019 and the economy was growing that year.

Actually, the US population has been declining over the last decades. The real growth factor in population has been immigration in the last decades, and that has also been declining lately.