The pandemic has caused the largest and fastest decline in international flows — including trade, foreign direct investment, and international travel — in modern history. While these numbers imply a major rollback of globalization’s recent gains, they don’t necessarily signal a fundamental collapse of international market integration. But how deep will the plunge really be? How fast can we expect global flows to rebound? And how might future flow patterns look different from the past? Leaders can find clues about the future and actionable implications for their companies by focusing on five key drivers of globalization’s trajectory: 1) global growth patterns; 2) supply-chain policies; 3) superpower frictions and fragility; 4) ongoing technical shifts; and 5) my opinion
