Question

A company is about to launch a new cell phone model. In the past, 40% of its cell phones have launched successfully. Before any cell phone is launched, the company conducts market research and receives a report predicting favorable or unfavorable sales. In the past, 70% of successful cell phones and 20% of unsuccessful cell phones received favorable reports. What is the probability that the new cell phone will receive a favorable report, given that the cell phone launch is successful?

Answer 1

There is a 70% chance that te phone will receive a favorable report.

Answer 2

Answer:

The required probability is 0.70.

Step-by-step explanation:

Let A represents the event of launching successfully, B represents the event of receiving favourable reports,

Given,

Probability of successful launching,

$P(A)=40\%=\frac{40}{100}=0.40$

Also, 70% of successful cell phones are received favorable reports.

$\implies P(A\cap B)=70\%\text{ of P(A)}=\frac{70\times 0.40}{100}=0.28$

Thus, by the conditional property,

The probability that the new cell phone will receive a favorable report, given that the cell phone launch is successful,

$P(\frac{B}{A})=\frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(A)}=\frac{0.28}{0.40}=0.70$