A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large research project. The firm's management initially felt they had a 50-50 chance of
getting the project. However, the agency to which the bid was submitted subsequently requested additional information on the bid. Past experience indicates that for 74% of the successful bids and 39% of the unsuccessful bids the agency requested additional information.
1. What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the request for additional information)?
2. What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information given that the bid will ultimately be successful?
3. Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a request for additional information
1. What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the request for additional information)?
2. What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information given that the bid will ultimately be successful?
3. Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a request for additional information
1 answer:
Answer:
1) he prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the request for additional information = 0.5
2) the conditional probability of a request for additional information given that the bid will ultimately be successful = 0.74
3) the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a request for additional information = 0.65
Step-by-step explanation:
The concept of probability of success and failure was used as well the approach of bayes formular or posterior probability. Keeping in mind that P(Success) + P(Failure) = 1
The detailed steps is as shown in the attachment.
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