Question

Argo, a firm organizing adventure travel, has returns that vary with the economy. Argo predicts that there is a 20% probability of a strong economy, a 50% probability of a normal economy, and a 30% probability of a weak economy. Given a strong economy, Argo expects a 35% return, given a normal economy, Argo expects a 14% return, and given a weak economy, Argo expects to lose 20%. What is the expected return for Argo

Answer 1

Answer: 8%

Explanation:

The expected return is a weighted average of the returns given the probability of certain states of the economy:

= (Prob. of boom * return if boom) + (Prob. of normal * return if normal) + (Prob. of  weak * return if weak)

= (20% * 35%) + (50% * 14%) + (30% * -20%)

= 0.07 + 0.07 - 0.06

= 8%