Question

In a playoff game between the State City Champions and the Anytown Victors, Sara initially bet against the State City Champions, who eventually won. After the game, she claimed she knew the Champions would be the winners. This is an example of a flaw in thinking called the _____ bias.

Answer 1

Answer:

This flaw of thinking is called the HINDSIGHT bias.

Explanation:

"We don't really know the result, but we think as though we do."

The Hindsight bias, creeping determinism, or knew-it-all-along phenomenon, is the assumption of an individual regarding an event that have already occurred as expected, as if he knew it even before the event took place. This leads to the person believing they have a high sense of certainty of what the outcome would really be, even before the culminating of the event. This usually results to overconfidence or overestimation in recalling the sequence of events before the predicted bias.

There are 3 levels of hindsight bias

1. Memory distortion - unable to recall the previous judgment ("I said it would happen").
2. Inevitability - the event must happen even with or without the circumstances (“It had to happen”).
3. Foreseeability - that belief and confidence wherein results of the event were already anticipated, even way before the event culmination (“I knew it would happen”).