Normally when dealing with coins the probability of getting heads or tails is 0.5 each. However in this case since its an unfair coin, the probability of getting heads is 0.2.
H - head
T - tails
R - red marble
pr (H) = 0.2
urn
6 red and 4 blue
pr (T) = 0.8
urn
3 red and 5 blue

when heads is obtained
red - 6/10 -0.6
blue - 4/10 - 0.4
therefore when multiplying with 0.2 probability of getting heads
pr (R ∩ H) red - 0.6*0.2 = 0.12

when tails is obtained
red - 3/8 - 0.375
blue - 5/8 - 0.625
when multiplying with 0.8 probability of getting tails
pr (R ∩ T) red - 0.375 * 0.8 = 0.3

using bayes rule the answer can be found out,
the following equation is used;
pr (H | R) = pr (R ∩ H) / {pr (R ∩ H) + pr (R ∩ T)}
= 0.12 / (0.12 + 0.3)
= 0.12 / 0.42
= 0.286
the final answer is 0.286

6 0

3 years ago

Please answer on paper if you can

katrin [286]

Step-by-step explanation:

As in the photo__________