I don't know what question you are but basically to find the the area of something u would either add and then multiply or just multiply . It depends on how your teacher taught you

5 0

3 years ago

The editor of a textbook publishing company is deciding whether to publish a proposed textbook. Information on previous textbook

kogti [31]

Answer:

34.86% probability that it will be huge success

Step-by-step explanation:

Bayes Theorem:

Two events, A and B.

$P(B|A) = \frac{P(B)*P(A|B)}{P(A)}$

In which P(B|A) is the probability of B happening when A has happened and P(A|B) is the probability of A happening when B has happened.

In this question:

Event A: Receiving a favorable review.

Event B: Being a huge success.

Information on previous textbooks published show that 20 % are huge successes

This means that $P(B) = 0.2$

99 % of the huge successes received favorable reviews

This means that $P(A|B) = 0.99$

Probability of receiving a favorable review:

20% are huge successes. Of those, 99% receive favorable reviews.

30% are modest successes. Of those, 70% receive favorable reviews.

30% break even. Of those, 40% receive favorable reviews.

20% are losers. Of those, 20% receive favorable reviews.

Then

$P(A) = 0.2*0.99 + 0.3*0.7 + 0.3*0.4 + 0.2*0.2 = 0.568$

Finally

$P(B|A) = \frac{P(B)*P(A|B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.2*0.99}{0.568} = 0.3486$

34.86% probability that it will be huge success

4 0

3 years ago