Question

Suppose that the manager of a company has estimated the probability of a super-event sometime during the next five years that will disrupt all suppliers as 5%, and the probability of a unique-event that would disrupt one of them sometime during the next five years to be 10%. Supplier management costs during this period are $30,000 per supplier. The financial cost incurred if all suppliers are disrupted at the same time is estimated to be $2,000,000. Assume that up to five nearly identical suppliers are available. How many suppliers should the manager use?

Answer 1

Based on the financial cost incurred if supply is disrupted and the probability that this happens, the number of suppliers the manager should use is Two (2) suppliers.

How many suppliers should be used?

If 3 suppliers are used, the probability of disruption would be:

= Probability of super event + (1 - Probability of super event) x Probability of unique event^ number of suppliers

= 5% + (1 - 5%) x 10%³

= 0.145

The payoff would be:

= 2 million x 0.145 + 30,000

= $191,900

With two suppliers:
= 2 million x (5% + (1 - 5%) x 10%²) + 30,000

= $169,000

With one supplier :

= 2 million x (5% + (1 - 5%) x 10%) + 30,000

= $320,000

The lowest cost is with 2 suppliers so this should be chosen.

Find out more on probability of disruption at brainly.com/question/16625463.

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