Question

A Geiger counter counts the number of alpha particles from radioactive material. Over a long period of time, an average of 14 particles per minute occurs. Assume the arrival of particles at the counter follows a Poisson distribution. Find the probability that at least one particle arrives in a particular one second period. Round your answer to four decimals.

Answer 1

Answer:

0.2081 = 20.81% probability that at least one particle arrives in a particular one second period.

Step-by-step explanation:

In a Poisson distribution, the probability that X represents the number of successes of a random variable is given by the following formula:

$P(X = x) = \frac{e^{-\mu}*\mu^{x}}{(x)!}$

In which

x is the number of sucesses

e = 2.71828 is the Euler number

$\mu$ is the mean in the given interval.

Over a long period of time, an average of 14 particles per minute occurs. Assume the arrival of particles at the counter follows a Poisson distribution. Find the probability that at least one particle arrives in a particular one second period.

Each minute has 60 seconds, so $\mu = \frac{14}{60} = 0.2333$

Either no particle arrives, or at least one does. The sum of the probabilities of these events is decimal 1. So

$P(X = 0) + P(X \geq 1) = 1$

We want $P(X \geq 1)$. So

$P(X \geq 1) = 1 - P(X = 0)$

In which

$P(X = x) = \frac{e^{-\mu}*\mu^{x}}{(x)!}$

$P(X = 0) = \frac{e^{-0.2333}*(0.2333)^{0}}{(0)!} = 0.7919$

$P(X \geq 1) = 1 - P(X = 0) = 1 - 0.7919 = 0.2081$

0.2081 = 20.81% probability that at least one particle arrives in a particular one second period.