Question

The annual precipitation amounts in a certain mountain range are normally distributed with a mean of 104 inches, and a standard deviation of 14 inches. What is the probability that the mean annual precipitation during 49 randomly picked years will be less than 106.8 inches

Answer 1

Answer:

91.92% probability that the mean annual precipitation during 49 randomly picked years will be less than 106.8 inches

Step-by-step explanation:

To solve this question, we need to understand the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem.

Normal probability distribution:

Problems of normally distributed samples are solved using the z-score formula.

In a set with mean $\mu$ and standard deviation $\sigma$, the zscore of a measure X is given by:

$Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}$

The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the pvalue, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.

Central limit theorem:

The Central Limit Theorem estabilishes that, for a random variable X, with mean $\mu$ and standard deviation $\sigma$, the sample means with size n of at least 30 can be approximated to a normal distribution with mean $\mu$ and standard deviation $s = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}$

In this problem, we have that:

$\mu = 104, \sigma = 14, n = 49, s = \frac{14}{\sqrt{49}} = 2$

What is the probability that the mean annual precipitation during 49 randomly picked years will be less than 106.8 inches

This is the pvalue of Z when X = 106.8. So

$Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}$

By the Central Limit Theorem

$Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}$

$Z = \frac{106.8 - 104}{2}$

$Z = 1.4$

$Z = 1.4$ has a pvalue of 0.9192

0.9192 = 91.92% probability that the mean annual precipitation during 49 randomly picked years will be less than 106.8 inches