Question

A major hurricane is a hurricane with wind speeds of 111 miles per hour or greater. During the 20th century the mean number of the major hurricanes to strike U.S mainland per year was 0.6. Find the probability that the number of major hurricane to strike U.S mainland in any any give year is: a) Exactly one b) At most one c) More than one

Answer 1

Answer:

a) 0.3293 = 32.93% probability that the number of major hurricane to strike U.S mainland in any any give year is exactly one.

b) 0.878 = 87.8% probability that the number of major hurricane to strike U.S mainland in any any give year is at most one.

c) 0.122 = 12.2% probability that the number of major hurricane to strike U.S mainland in any any give year is more than one.

Step-by-step explanation:

We have the mean during an interval, which means that the Poisson distribution is used to solve this question.

In a Poisson distribution, the probability that X represents the number of successes of a random variable is given by the following formula:

$P(X = x) = \frac{e^{-\mu}*\mu^{x}}{(x)!}$

In which

x is the number of sucesses

e = 2.71828 is the Euler number

$\mu$ is the mean in the given interval.

During the 20th century the mean number of the major hurricanes to strike U.S mainland per year was 0.6.

This means that $\mu = 0.6$

Find the probability that the number of major hurricane to strike U.S mainland in any any give year is:

a) Exactly one

This is P(X = 1). So

$P(X = x) = \frac{e^{-\mu}*\mu^{x}}{(x)!}$

$P(X = 1) = \frac{e^{-0.6}*0.6^{1}}{(1)!} = 0.3293$

0.3293 = 32.93% probability that the number of major hurricane to strike U.S mainland in any any give year is exactly one.

b) At most one

This is:

$P(X \leq 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)$

Then

$P(X = x) = \frac{e^{-\mu}*\mu^{x}}{(x)!}$

$P(X = 0) = \frac{e^{-0.6}*0.6^{0}}{(0)!} = 0.5488$

$P(X = 1) = \frac{e^{-0.6}*0.6^{1}}{(1)!} = 0.3293$

$P(X \leq 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) = 0.5488 + 0.3292 = 0.878$

0.878 = 87.8% probability that the number of major hurricane to strike U.S mainland in any any give year is at most one.

c) More than one

This is:

$P(X > 1) = 1 - P(X \leq 1) = 1 - 0.878 = 0.122$

0.122 = 12.2% probability that the number of major hurricane to strike U.S mainland in any any give year is more than one.