Question

Suppose that the spot price of the euro is currently $1.30. The 1-year futures price is $1.35. Is the interest rate higher in the United States or the euro zone?

Answer 1

Answer:

The interest rate is higher in the US.

Explanation:

The forward price is calculated using the following formula,

F= S ( 1+Rd / 1+Rf)^t

where,

• F = Forward rate
• S = Spot rate
• Rd = Nominal interest rate in domestic market
• Rf = Nominal interest rate in foreign market
• t = time in years

We consider that the domestic market is the US and the domestic currency is the USD. Thus, it is a direct quote where 1 EUR = 1.3 USD

The forward price ER is more than the Sport ER only when the interest rate in domestic market is more than the interest rate in foreign market and as a result, the value of domestic currency against a foreign currency in the forward market depreciates.

We can see this by the following example,

Say Spot rate is $1.3 per 1 EUR and the interest rate in US is 10% while that in Euro zone is 5%. When we calculate the forward ER we will see that 1 EUR will buy us more USD in forward (more than 1.3 USD)

F= 1.3 * (1.1 / 1.05)^1   => $1.362 PER 1EUR