Answer:
A university found that 30% of its students withdraw without completing the introductory statistics course. Assume that 20 students registered for the course.
a. Compute the probability that 2 or fewer will withdraw (to 4 decimals).
= 0.0355
b. Compute the probability that exactly 4 will withdraw (to 4 decimals).
= 0.1304
c. Compute the probability that more than 3 will withdraw (to 4 decimals).
= 0.8929
d. Compute the expected number of withdrawals.
= 6
Step-by-step explanation:
This is a binomial problem and the formula for binomial is:
![P(X = x) = nCx p^{x} q^{n - x}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28X%20%3D%20x%29%20%3D%20nCx%20p%5E%7Bx%7D%20q%5E%7Bn%20-%20x%7D)
a) Compute the probability that 2 or fewer will withdraw
First we need to determine, given 2 students from the 20. Which is the probability of those 2 to withdraw and all others to complete the course. This is given by:
![P(X = x) = nCx p^{x} q^{n - x}\\P(X = 2) = 20C2(0.3)^2(0.7)^{18}\\P(X = 2) =190 * 0.09 * 0.001628413597\\P(X = 2) = 0.027845872524](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28X%20%3D%20x%29%20%3D%20nCx%20p%5E%7Bx%7D%20q%5E%7Bn%20-%20x%7D%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%202%29%20%3D%2020C2%280.3%29%5E2%280.7%29%5E%7B18%7D%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%202%29%20%3D190%20%2A%200.09%20%2A%200.001628413597%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%202%29%20%3D%200.027845872524)
![P(X = x) = nCx p^{x} q^{n - x}\\P(X = 1) = 20C1(0.3)^1(0.7)^{19}\\P(X = 1) =20 * 0.3 * 0.001139889518\\P(X = 1) = 0.006839337111](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28X%20%3D%20x%29%20%3D%20nCx%20p%5E%7Bx%7D%20q%5E%7Bn%20-%20x%7D%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%201%29%20%3D%2020C1%280.3%29%5E1%280.7%29%5E%7B19%7D%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%201%29%20%3D20%20%2A%200.3%20%2A%200.001139889518%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%201%29%20%3D%200.006839337111)
![P(X = x) = nCx p^{x} q^{n - x}\\P(X = 0) = 20C0(0.3)^0(0.7)^{20}\\P(X = 0) =1 * 1 * 0.000797922662\\P(X = 0) = 0.000797922662](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28X%20%3D%20x%29%20%3D%20nCx%20p%5E%7Bx%7D%20q%5E%7Bn%20-%20x%7D%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%200%29%20%3D%2020C0%280.3%29%5E0%280.7%29%5E%7B20%7D%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%200%29%20%3D1%20%2A%201%20%2A%200.000797922662%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%200%29%20%3D%200.000797922662)
Finally, the probability that 2 or fewer students will withdraw is
![P(X = 2) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 0) \\= 0.027845872524 + 0.006839337111 + 0.000797922662\\= 0.035483132297\\= 0.0355](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28X%20%3D%202%29%20%2B%20P%28X%20%3D%201%29%20%2B%20P%28X%20%3D%200%29%20%5C%5C%3D%200.027845872524%20%2B%200.006839337111%20%2B%200.000797922662%5C%5C%3D%200.035483132297%5C%5C%3D%200.0355)
b) Compute the probability that exactly 4 will withdraw.
![P(X = x) = nCx p^{x} q^{n - x}\\P(X = 4) = 20C4(0.3)^4(0.7)^{16}\\P(X = 4) = 4845 * 0.0081 * 0.003323293056\\P(X = 4) = 0.130420974373\\P(X = 4) = 0.1304](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28X%20%3D%20x%29%20%3D%20nCx%20p%5E%7Bx%7D%20q%5E%7Bn%20-%20x%7D%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%204%29%20%3D%2020C4%280.3%29%5E4%280.7%29%5E%7B16%7D%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%204%29%20%3D%204845%20%2A%200.0081%20%2A%200.003323293056%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%204%29%20%3D%200.130420974373%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%204%29%20%3D%200.1304)
c) Compute the probability that more than 3 will withdraw
First we will compute the probability that exactly 3 students withdraw, which is given by
![P(X = x) = nCx p^{x} q^{n - x}\\P(X = 3) = 20C3(0.3)^3(0.7)^{17}\\P(X = 3) = 1140 * 0.027 * 0.002326305139\\P(X = 3) = 0.071603672205\\P(X = 3) = 0.0716](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28X%20%3D%20x%29%20%3D%20nCx%20p%5E%7Bx%7D%20q%5E%7Bn%20-%20x%7D%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%203%29%20%3D%2020C3%280.3%29%5E3%280.7%29%5E%7B17%7D%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%203%29%20%3D%201140%20%2A%200.027%20%2A%200.002326305139%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%203%29%20%3D%200.071603672205%5C%5CP%28X%20%3D%203%29%20%3D%200.0716)
Then, using a) we have that the probability that 3 or fewer students withdraw is 0.0355+0.0716=0.1071. Therefore the probability that more than 3 will withdraw is 1 - 0.1071=0.8929
d) Compute the expected number of withdrawals.
E(X) = 3/10 * 20 = 6
Expected number of withdrawals is the 30% of 20 which is 6.