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3 years ago

6

People arrive at a college admissions office at rate 1 per minute, and the arrival is a Poisson process. When k people have arri

ve, a tour starts. Student tour guides are paid $20 for each tour they conduct. The college estimates that it loses ten cents in good will for each minute a person waits. What tour group (not counting the guide) minimizes the average cost per person?

1 answer:

sweet-ann [11.9K]3 years ago

7 0

Answer:

K=20

Step-by-step explanation:

There seem to be no randomness in the question.

At 1 per minutes the arrival rate is fixed.

Then compute the average cost for each person to give a four, adding the cost of guide and time waiting cost..

Therefore, K is the number of people hoping will show up.

Number of per minute waiting

= 1/2(K-1)K.

Tour cost 20+1/20(K-1).

Cost per guest= 20/k +1/20(K-1)

If the derivative is set to Zero

K=20

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a) 0.194 = 19.4% probability that more than 7 preferred McDonald's

b) 0.787 = 78.7% probability that between 3 and 7 (inclusive) preferred McDonald's

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Step-by-step explanation:

For each young adult, there are only two possible outcomes. Either they prefer McDonalds, or they prefer burger king. The probability of an adult prefering McDonalds is independent from other adults. So we use the binomial probability distribution to solve this question.

Binomial probability distribution

The binomial probability is the probability of exactly x successes on n repeated trials, and X can only have two outcomes.

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In which $C_{n,x}$ is the number of different combinations of x objects from a set of n elements, given by the following formula.

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50% of all young adults prefer McDonald's to Burger King when asked to state a preference.

This means that $p = 0.5$

12 young adults were randomly selected

This means that $n = 12$

(a) What is the probability that more than 7 preferred McDonald's?

$P(X > 7) = P(X = 8) + P(X = 9) + P(X = 10) + P(X = 11) + P(X = 12)$

In which

$P(X = x) = C_{n,x}.p^{x}.(1-p)^{n-x}$

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$P(X = 9) = C_{12,9}.(0.5)^{9}.(0.5)^{3} = 0.054$

$P(X = 10) = C_{12,10}.(0.5)^{10}.(0.5)^{2} = 0.016$

$P(X = 11) = C_{12,11}.(0.5)^{11}.(0.5)^{1} = 0.003$

$P(X = 12) = C_{12,12}.(0.5)^{12}.(0.5)^{0} = 0.000$

$P(X > 7) = P(X = 8) + P(X = 9) + P(X = 10) + P(X = 11) + P(X = 12) = 0.121 + 0.054 + 0.016 + 0.003 + 0.000 = 0.194$

0.194 = 19.4% probability that more than 7 preferred McDonald's

(b) What is the probability that between 3 and 7 (inclusive) preferred McDonald's?

$P(3 \leq X \leq 7) = P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) + P(X = 6) + P(X = 7)$

$P(X = x) = C_{n,x}.p^{x}.(1-p)^{n-x}$

$P(X = 3) = C_{12,3}.(0.5)^{3}.(0.5)^{9} = 0.054$

$P(X = 4) = C_{12,4}.(0.5)^{4}.(0.5)^{8} = 0.121$

$P(X = 5) = C_{12,5}.(0.5)^{5}.(0.5)^{7} = 0.193$

$P(X = 6) = C_{12,6}.(0.5)^{6}.(0.5)^{6} = 0.226$

$P(X = 7) = C_{12,7}.(0.5)^{7}.(0.5)^{5} = 0.193$

$P(3 \leq X \leq 7) = P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) + P(X = 6) + P(X = 7) = 0.054 + 0.121 + 0.193 + 0.226 + 0.193 = 0.787$

0.787 = 78.7% probability that between 3 and 7 (inclusive) preferred McDonald's

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Since $p = 1-p = 0.5$ , this is the same as b) above.

So

0.787 = 78.7% probability that between 3 and 7 (inclusive) preferred Burger King

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Next you should find out how many words on 15 pages total.
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