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jeka94
3 years ago
12

Ví dụ 1.5. Một người đi mua hàng 3 lần. Xác suất lần đầu mua được hàng tốt là 0,7.

Mathematics
1 answer:
vodka [1.7K]3 years ago
5 0

Answer:

a) 0.50575,

b) 0.042

Step-by-step explanation:

Example 1.5. A person goes shopping 3 times. The probability of buying a good product for the first time is 0.7.

If the first time you can buy good products, the next time you can buy good products is 0.85;  (I interpret this as, if you buy a good product, then the next time you buy a good product is 0.85).

And if the last time I bought a bad product, the next time I bought a good one is  0.6. Calculate the probability that:

a) All three times the person bought good goods.

P(Good on 1st shopping event AND Good on 2nd shopping event AND Good on 3rd shopping event) =

P(Good on 1st shopping event) *P(Good on 2nd shopping event | Good on 1st shopping event) * P(Good on 3rd shopping event | 1st and 2nd shopping events yield Good) =

(0.7)(0.85)(0.85) =

0.50575      

b) Only the second time that person buys a bad product.

P(Good on 1st shopping event AND Bad on 2nd shopping event AND Good on 3rd shopping event) =

P(Good on 1st shopping event) *P(Bad on 2nd shopping event | Good on 1st shopping event) * P(Good on 3rd shopping event | 1st is Good and 2nd is Bad shopping events) =

(0.7)(1-0.85)(1-0.6) =

(0.7)(0.15)(0.4) =

0.042

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3 years ago
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aleksandrvk [35]

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<em>Additional comment</em>

The cross multiplication method isn't taught everywhere. The attachment explains a bit about it. Our final relationship changes the order of the fractions to 1, x, y from x, y, 1. That way, we can use the equation coefficients in their original general-form order. (The fourth column in the 2×4 array of coefficients is a repeat of the first column.)

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