Answer:
0.2941 = 29.41% probability that it was manufactured during the first shift.
Step-by-step explanation:
Conditional Probability
We use the conditional probability formula to solve this question. It is
In which
P(B|A) is the probability of event B happening, given that A happened.
is the probability of both A and B happening.
P(A) is the probability of A happening.
In this question:
Event A: Defective
Event B: Manufactured during the first shift.
Probability of a defective item:
1% of 50%(first shift)
2% of 30%(second shift)
3% of 20%(third shift).
So
Probability of a defective item being produced on the first shift:
1% of 50%. So
What is the probability that it was manufactured during the first shift?
0.2941 = 29.41% probability that it was manufactured during the first shift.