The probability that the results indicate an unsuccessful market for the product and the product is actually unsuccessful is P=0.77.
<h3>What is probability?</h3>
Probability is defined as the ratio of the number of favourable outcomes to the total number of outcomes in other words the probability is the number that shows the happening of the event.
Events:
S: success
F: failure
MS: market research forecast a success
MF: market research forecast a failure
The information we have is:
P(S)=0.70
P(F)=0.30
P(S|MS)=0.90
P(F|MS)=0.20
If P(F|MS)=0.20, we can derive that P(F|MF)=0.80. That is, the failed products were predicted to be a failure based on market research 80 per cent of the time.
We also can conclude that P(S|MF)=0.10.
We can calculate the probability of having a forecast of a failure, given that the product is actually unsuccessful as:



The probability that the results indicate an unsuccessful market for the product and the product is actually unsuccessful is P=0.77.
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